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  • If a model is “drifting” it will experience changes beyond the usual year-to-year and decade-to-decade natural variability, even though the factors affecting the climate, such as greenhouse gas concentrations, are unchanged.

    Model control runs start the model during a period before modern industrial activity dramatically increased greenhouse gases. They then let the model run for hundreds or thousands of years without changing greenhouse gases, solar activity, or any other external factors that affect the climate. This differs from a natural-only run as both human and natural factors are left unchanged.

    Atmospheric model intercomparison project (AMIP) runs

    Climate models include the atmosphere, land and ocean. AMIP runs effectively ‘‘turn off’’ everything except the atmosphere, using fixed values for the land and ocean based on observations. For example, AMIP runs use observed sea surface temperatures as an input to the model, allowing the land surface temperature and the temperature of the different layers of the atmosphere to respond.

    Normally climate models will have their own internal variability – short-term climate cycles in the oceans such as El Niño and La Niña events – that occur at different times than what happens in the real world. AMIP runs allow modellers to match ocean temperatures to observations, so that internal variability in the models occurs at the same time as in the observations and changes over time in both are easier to compare.

    Abrupt 4x CO2 runs

    Climate models comparison projects, such as CMIP5, generally request that all models undertake a set of “diagnostic” scenarios to test performance across various criteria.

    One of these tests is an “abrupt” increase in CO2 from pre-industrial levels to four times higher – from 280 parts per million (ppm) to 1,120ppm – holding all other factors that influence the climate constant. (For context, current CO2 concentrations are around 400ppm .) This allows scientists to see how quickly the Earth’s temperature responds to changes in CO2 in their model compared to others.

    One of 42 panels displayed throughout the Gare du Nord metro station in Paris, honouring Syukuro Manabe and his contributions to climate science, to mark the COP21 UN climate change conference in 2015. The equations were used by Manabe in his seminal climate model in the late 1960s. Credit: NOAA/Rory O'Connor.

    One of 42 panels displayed throughout the Gare du Nord metro station in Paris, honouring Syukuro Manabe and his contributions to climate science, to mark the COP21 UN climate change conference in 2015. The equations were used by Manabe in his seminal climate model in the late 1960s. Credit: Rosamund Pearce/Carbon Brief.

    1% CO2 runs

    Another diagnostic test increases CO2 emissions from pre-industrial levels by 1% per year, until CO2 ultimately quadruples and reaches 1,120ppm. These scenarios also hold all other factors affecting the climate unchanged.

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